In May 2024, people in Florida, northern India, and southern Europe looked up and saw the sky glowing red and green. A series of powerful solar eruptions had triggered the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades, and the aurora reached latitudes where most people had never seen it. Similar events followed in October 2024 and again in 2025.
That wasn't luck. It was the Sun's activity cycle at its peak. Understanding that cycle, and a few simple numbers, is the difference between hoping to see the aurora and knowing when to look.
What the Aurora Actually Is
The Sun constantly sends out a stream of charged particles called the solar wind. Every so often it also launches much bigger bursts, called coronal mass ejections. When these hit Earth, our planet's magnetic field funnels the energy toward the poles, where particles crash into the upper atmosphere about 100 to 300 km up. Oxygen glows green, or red at higher altitudes. Nitrogen adds purples and blues.
Normally this happens in a ring around the magnetic poles, which is why Iceland, northern Norway, and Alaska see auroras often. During strong storms, the ring expands toward the equator, and that's when people much further south get a show.
Why 2026โ27 Matters
The Sun's activity rises and falls over a cycle of roughly 11 years. The current one, Solar Cycle 25, peaked around late 2024, and solar activity is now on the way down. But the decline is gradual, and the years just after a peak often produce some of the strongest storms. Space-weather forecasters expect activity through this winter to stay well above the long-term average.
After that, the odds fall steadily toward the next solar minimum, expected around the early 2030s. Auroras will still happen at high latitudes every winter, but displays far south of the Arctic will become much rarer. If seeing the northern lights is on your list, this winter is a good one to act on it.
The Numbers That Matter
Kp 0โ3: quiet; aurora mainly in the far north. Kp 4: active; visible across northern Scandinavia, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada. Kp 5โ6: a geomagnetic storm; may reach Scotland, southern Scandinavia, and the northern US states. Kp 7+: a strong storm; can reach the central US, central Europe, and further.
The Kp index is the headline number, and our space weather tracker shows it live. Two other readings help experienced aurora chasers. Solar wind speed above about 500 km/s is promising. The Bz value, the direction of the magnetic field carried by the solar wind, matters even more: when it points south (negative), energy couples into Earth's field efficiently and displays can switch on fast.
For alerts, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issues watches when a storm is expected, typically one to three days after an eruption leaves the Sun, which gives you time to plan.
How to Maximise Your Chances
Go north, and go dark. Latitude helps more than anything. After that, distance from city lights matters most. Find a spot with a clear view of the northern horizon (southern, if you're in the Southern Hemisphere, where the same phenomenon is called the aurora australis).
Pick the right season and hour. You need darkness, so long winter nights are best. The hours around local midnight are typically most active, though strong storms can light up any part of the night.
Use your phone camera. Here's the secret most first-timers learn on the night: a weak aurora often looks like a pale grey glow to the naked eye, while a phone camera in night mode shows vivid green and pink. If you suspect something faint on the horizon, take a photo. Our night-sky phone photography guide explains the settings.
Be patient and flexible. Auroras pulse and fade. A quiet sky can erupt into activity in minutes, and a promising forecast can fizzle. The people who see the best displays are the ones who stay out an extra hour.
Planning a trip? Northern Norway, Iceland, Finnish Lapland, and Alaska offer good odds most clear winter nights, regardless of the solar cycle. Go for at least three or four nights to ride out cloudy spells.
A Note on Expectations
The photos you see online are usually long exposures or processed phone shots, and they are more saturated than what the eye perceives. A strong display overhead can genuinely look like that: rippling curtains of green filling the sky. A modest display looks like a soft glowing arc. Both are worth seeing. Knowing the difference in advance stops a real aurora from feeling like a disappointment.